NFL insider Jason La Canfora predicts QB scenarios for Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield and CJ Stroud

Key highlights:

• One anonymous GM told La Canfora, regarding Lamar Jackson: “With no tag and no trade, he calls all the shots.”
• One longtime NFL Exec compared Baker Mayfield to Russell Wilson, suggesting “once the legs go, they’re never the same.”
• An advance scout who does a lot of work in the AFC South told La Canfora, regarding CJ Stroud’s playoff performance v New England, “Houston wins that game if Davis Mills starts”.

Training camps are in full swing in the NFL, but the business of football continues to trump anything taking place on practice fields this time of year. There are critical quarterback contracts that threaten the very fabric and future of some recent playoff franchises, and it’s far from hunky-dory in some of these cases.

The Ravens have been down this ragged path before with two-time MVP Lamar Jackson; it took a contentious negotiation after the expiration of his rookie deal, a trade demand and a franchise tag before he finally got a deal done. Now, Jackson has even more leverage.

Tampa quarterback Baker Mayfield left Cleveland on bad terms after being a first-overall pick, and he’s been venting throughout the summer about his inability to get what he wants from the Buccaneers with one year left on his deal. The Texans are in a tricky spot with young QB CJ Stroud, who has suffered historic struggles in the postseason after regular season success.

It stands to reason that at least one of them won’t be back with their current team by 2027, and possibly more. Front office executives around the NFL are watching closely to see if they might be able to land one of these accomplished passers next season, as supply never meets demand with the most important position in all of professional sports.

Jackson Holds All The Cards

Jackson has won another MVP since signing his last contract (and should have won a third), he has watched lesser (and older) quarterbacks like Dak Prescott leapfrog his worth since then and he also secured a no-trade clause and a no-franchise tag clause as part of his current deal. And, with an $85M cap hit set for 2027 – too much for any team to carry – he is ostensibly set to be a free agent after this season if he remains on his current deal.

“With the no tag and no trade, he calls all the shots,” one GM told me. “Lamar has all the leverage.”

Jackson won’t really talk much about the contract situation – when you have all the leverage you don’t have to (unlike Mayfield, who we will get to) – but he’s made it clear he’s “cool with” his existing deal for 2026 (roughly $50M fully guaranteed). Multiple NFL GMs and contract negotiators commented to me over the offseason that the Ravens were grumbling because the QB, who serves as his own agent, was difficult to pin down and get engaged on a deal. Which is 100 percent his want.

When asked this week if, as his own representative, Jackson would cease contract talks now that camps have begun he said: “Yes, I’m focused on football, like I’ve always been.” That could be interpreted several ways, which serves Jackson just fine. He says he wants to keep everything “private” between him and GM Eric DeCosta, but the entire league is watching closely given how bizarre it is to be at this point without a long-term deal in place. Patrick Mahomes re-set the market twice since Jackson got paid.

“The player is in the dominant position,” is how one contract negotiator for another NFL team explained it. “They have to convince him to sign. He can just run out the clock if he wants.”

Clearly, something is holding the Ravens back – as was the case before. Jackson acts cool as can be, because he’s going to get what he wants in 2027 whether in Baltimore or elsewhere. DeCosta admitted “I was in a dark place,” after getting Jackson’s last deal done, expressing considerable outward relief it was finally over. He should certainly be sweating now.

Prediction: Jackson is dealt in early 2027 for three first-round picks

Will Baker Mayfield Over Play Hand?

Mayfield, meanwhile, is kicking and screaming about his deal and the fact he’s set to make $30M this season … which is probably about what he’s worth. He wants $50M a season, the Bucs, smartly, have not capitulated and Mayfield got quite huffy and puffy when he cut off contract talks this week, saying he felt “disrespected.”

“That's really the disappointing part, to feel undervalued after thinking you've earned it,” Mayfield groused at his training camp media availability.

Unlike Jackson, he is on the wrong side of 30 (32 in 2027) and never sniffed an MVP and doesn’t have a playoff resume either. He’s bounced between multiple franchises, lacks ideal size and, at this stage of his career, elite escape-ability. He was hurt much of last season, leading to a down year, teams are excited about the prospects of the 2027 college QB draft class, and, most importantly, he lacks a no-trade or no-tag provision.

Multiple NFL execs told me they think he is clustered around the 10-15th best QB in the NFL, and something in the $35M range, maybe pushing $40M is where they see him. Another injury-plagued season, for a smaller and older QB, and that $30M might look pretty good in hindsight. One longtime NFL exec offered that Mayfield’s stature and style could project Russell Wilson as a comp, and noted, “once Wilson’s legs started to go, he wasn’t the same.”

Wilson had a sterling 103.1 pass rating in his age 33 season, it dropped to 84.4 the following year and he was about to become a highly paid back-up. Mayfield has always had a chip on his shoulder, he tends to run hot, and this has the potential to get more personal as the season goes on.

The 2027 franchise tag total for QBs projects to $50M. Going year-to-year with him makes a lot of sense, rather than guaranteeing three years of salary.

Prediction: The Bucs apply the transition tag ($44M) and trade Mayfield

Pivotal Year For Stroud

The Texans have the element of time firmly in their favor, more so than these other situations.

Stroud, also a first-round pick, is three years into his career, they have a fifth-year option on him and they could apply franchise tags after that. The Texans were never going to make a real push to sign him this year after some dramatic declines from his rookie season, and general manager Nick Caserio is a product of Bill Belichick in New England – even Tom Brady took less to be a part of that dynasty and there was no dynasty without Brady.

“Nick is no pushover,” another general manager told me this offseason. “Stroud is going to have to earn it.”

That means displaying better consistency in the regular season and finding a way to put a much better foot forward in the playoffs.

We can quibble about the play callers around him, and whether they were up to task, and there have been offensive line issues. But things seem to set up pretty well for Stroud right now. His supporting cast is getting healthier, and the AFC South isn’t a dominant division. He benefits from having arguably the best defense in football (certainly top five).

Overcoming his deficient play in the postseason won’t be easy. As one advance scout who does a lot of work in the AFC South and knows the Texans well put it to me after Houston lost at New England in the playoffs with Stroud totally melting down: “Houston wins that game if (backup QB) Davis Mills starts.”

Gulp.

You can’t get generational QB money off that, and at this point Stroud is going to be measured in January if he wants to get paid like the guys who get it done then.

Prediction: Stroud heads into 2027 without a new deal