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No one who was announced as a Week 1 starter in the NFL surprised us in the least. Not a smidge.
There really weren’t any quarterback compositions being held. We told you Kyler Murray was signed in Minnesota to be the Day One starter and same thing with Kirk Cousins in Las Vegas.
We told you Deshaun Watson’s contract always meant he was going out there Week 1 to start earning his money. The Falcons were going to give Tua Tagovailoa the gig to start, but as soon as Michael Penix gets healthy, well, stay tuned.
All the faux intrigue made for good copy, and it keeps the machine humming because quarterbacks are the league and quarterbacks are good content, but there was nothing to see in any of these cases barring major injuries.
However, the real story has been how long some Week 1 starters keep the job. That’s quite interesting and that’s where the course of some seasons and the future of some franchises will truly swing.
This will be one of the major subplots to this NFL season, because there are vast tentacles that stretch from these decisions, like how soon certain teams embrace being a seller at the trade deadline and concerning what certain teams end up doing in the 2027 draft regarding quarterbacks.
There are five situations we are keeping a very close eye on and expect there to be at least one changing of the guard in terms of starting QBs by Week 3.
These are the veterans most imperiled and some of these teams are quite motivated to see what’s behind Door No. 2, they just have to be a little careful and delicate about how they message it.
Oh, and the Vikings won’t appear in this list, because I expect them to ship out young back-up JJ McCarthy in the coming weeks and that it’s Kyler Murray’s offense as long as he can stay healthy (which is a big if).
I figure it will take Penix at least another week of practice to make this something to really think about.
There is always the chance they go to Cooper Rush as a buffer too, with Penix returning from yet another major injury.
Tagovailoa is not a functional QB anymore, he doesn’t want to run with the ball and extend plays and he doesn’t want to push it downfield at all. “I think he’s done,” as one GM put it to me. “We wouldn’t be interested even as a back-up.”
They must look at Penix, a recent first-round pick and we continue to hear Tagovailoa’s attitude and mannerisms are not endearing him to locker rooms anymore. I think this change happens by Week 3, when we suspect the 0-2 team starts getting antsy.
This guy will go to great lengths to be a back-up.
He doesn’t really want to play and rookie head coach Todd Monken inferred as much in the preseason when he said he needed to see “how much fun,” Watson would have as a QB again. Then Watson tried to talk his way out of the job, anyway.
They host the Steelers in Week 4 in prime time. Browns fans will be all over Watson that entire game.
Pittsburgh will knock him around and I see Shedeur Sanders getting the start by Week 5 when they face the rebuilding Jets. Which begs the question of who will be QB for New York at that point …
This situation isn’t getting talked about enough, but Smith was quite terrible in 2025.
He’s been a turnover machine even at his best, and coach Aaron Glenn is very much fighting for his job already (get ready to hear a lot more about the Jets coveting Mike Tomlin). Glenn’s defense, and job security, will get undermined if Smith is throwing picks all over the place. Smith got his old buddy Pete Carroll whacked in Vegas after just one year.
Smith might be cooked, New York fans turned on him pretty good during his first unsuccessful stint there and evaluators we trust continue to be intrigued by fourth-round pick Cade Klubnik.
“I think he has a chance to start,” the GM said. New York is likely drafting a QB no matter what, but if it’s turnover city, you’d rather have that from a raw kid with long-term upside than Smith at the very end.
If this offensive line can keep him upright and they get the early-down, play-action game going and the young TEs are eating, the Raiders will let this ride.
If the OL looks shaky, well, Tom Brady isn’t going to be in a rush to see first-overall pick Fernando Mendoza behind that, either.
“I think they’re going to give Cousins a real look,” Raiders analyst and former Raiders MVP QB Rich Gannon told me this summer.
Call me crazy, but I think the Raiders can be 2-4 after six weeks, and showing improvement.
They host the Rams with Hall of Famers Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett anchoring a defensive line that looks generational in game seven.
So, um, I think they’ll pass on the baptism there. But Nov. 1, against the Jets, that looks kinda like where they want to start seeing what the kid can do.
If he plays anything like he did a year ago, he will be a real asset for a totally tanking team.
The Cardinals will still stink, because their roster is terribly flawed on both sides of the ball and they have a rookie head coach. They are playing for the 2027 QB draft.
A contending team or two will have an injury. Cardinals rookie Carson Beck played a ton of college football (“Of all the kids in this draft,” the first GM said of the 2026 QB draft class, “Beck is the one most ready to play Week 1.”).
Arizona will want to see him, and more than just a game or two, before it enters 2027 draft prep. They need all the future draft pick capital they can get to try to eventually compete in the loaded NFC West.
