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Every NBA fanbase enters a new season with hope. The only question is: how much?
Some supporters are already picturing a championship parade. Others believe a breakout star, a successful offseason or the momentum from last season has finally put their team on the path to contention.
And then there are the fans who have declared, “this is our year”, too many times to count, but still believe it anyway.
With the new NBA season approaching, we wanted to discover which fanbases are feeling the most optimistic heading into 2026-27.
We surveyed 5,000 NBA fans across all 30 teams on everything from projected wins and postseason expectations to confidence in their team, head coach and offseason moves. Their responses were combined into a weighted NBA Hope Index measuring each fanbase’s optimism on a scale of 1-100.
The results reveal an enormous divide in preseason belief. The league’s most optimistic fanbase scored 98, while the least hopeful received just 2.
At the top of the NBA Hope Index, confidence is in no short supply. San Antonio Spurs fans lead the rankings with an Optimism Index score of 98, with last season’s run to the NBA Finals clearly carrying belief into the new season.
That confidence is reflected in some of the boldest predictions anywhere in the league. Nearly two-thirds of Spurs fans surveyed (65%) expect their team to win the NBA championship, compared with a league average of just 26%.
Another 81% predict the Spurs will win at least 50 games, while their average team-confidence rating of 8.7 out of 10 is the highest in the NBA.
After winning 62 games and reaching the Finals last season, Spurs fans are not merely hoping for further improvement. They believe their team can go one step further and win the championship.
Defending NBA champion New York Knicks fans rank 2nd with a score of 95/100, showing that last season’s title has carried confidence into the new 2026-27 season.
More than three-quarters of Knicks supporters surveyed (79%) expect at least 50 regular-season wins, while 57% believe the season will end with another NBA championship. Knicks fans also gave their head coach an average confidence rating of 8.6 out of 10, the 2nd highest in the league.
After ending the franchise’s 53-year championship drought, Knicks supporters believe last season was not a one-off. Their expectations are now firmly focused on defending the title.
The Philadelphia 76ers complete the top 3 with an Optimism Index score of 90, but their optimism is influenced by something slightly different: a dramatic change in mood.
An overwhelming 86% of 76ers fans say they are more optimistic than they were at this time last year, almost twice the league average of 46%.
That renewed belief is also reflected in their expectations. 71% Philadelphia fans say, “this is our year,” and when asked why this will be their year 53% predict the 76ers will win the NBA Finals.
Supporters also gave the team’s offseason an average success rating of 8.7 out of 10, the highest in the NBA. No fanbase appears more convinced that its franchise has transformed its outlook over the past year.
Oklahoma City Thunder fans rank fourth with an Optimism Index score of 88, after a 64-win season took the team to within one game of the NBA Finals.
More than two-thirds of Thunder fans (68%) expect the team to record at least 50 wins, while almost half (48%) believe Oklahoma City will win the NBA championship. After falling to San Antonio in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals, supporters appear confident that the Thunder can take the final step next season.
Fans also gave their head coach an average confidence rating of 8.7 out of 10, joint highest in the NBA. Combined with an average team-confidence score of 8.4, the results suggest Thunder supporters trust both the roster and the people leading it.
Miami Heat fans take 5th place with a score of 81, despite the team finishing 43–39 and 10th in the Eastern Conference last season.
More than two-thirds of Heat fans (69%) say they are more optimistic than they were a year ago. This suggests their confidence is being driven less by last season’s record and more by trust in the coaching staff, the offseason and the franchise’s direction.
The top 10 fanbases in the NBA Hope Index are:
Recent performance clearly influences preseason confidence, but fan expectations do not always rise and fall in perfect step with the standings.
Toronto Raptors fans rank 7th with a score of 72 after finishing 46–36 and returning to the playoffs last season. While only 16% predict an NBA championship, 63% say they are more optimistic than they were a year ago, suggesting supporters believe the team’s progress can continue.
Detroit Pistons fans rank 9th with a score of 68, despite recording an Eastern Conference-best 60–22 record last season. Almost two-thirds (65%) expect another 50-win campaign, but only 10% predict a championship.
That contrast suggests Pistons fans believe their team will remain among the league’s strongest without assuming that regular-season success will automatically translate into a title.
Not every hopeful fanbase expects to compete for a championship immediately.
For some supporters, optimism means believing a title run is coming. For others, it means expecting clear progress after years of uncertainty.
That distinction is particularly visible among fanbases such as Toronto, Atlanta and Indiana, where the proportion of fans feeling more optimistic than last year is stronger than their immediate championship expectations.
63% of Raptors fans, 60% of Pacers fans and 57% of Hawks fans say they feel more optimistic than a year ago.
These results show that hope can grow long before a team becomes a clear championship favorite. A promising roster, an encouraging offseason or simply a sense that the franchise is finally moving forward can be enough to transform expectations.
At the other end of the table, some fanbases enter the season with considerably more doubt than belief.
Milwaukee Bucks fans rank last with an Optimism Index score of just 2, narrowly behind the Sacramento Kings, who scored 3.
Milwaukee’s outlook is particularly bleak. None of the Bucks fans surveyed expect the team to reach 50 wins or the NBA Finals, while their average team-confidence rating stands at just 3.8 out of 10.
Supporters gave the team’s offseason an average rating of 4.0, and only 8% say they feel more optimistic than they did at this time last year.
The results suggest Bucks fans are not simply lowering their expectations, they are struggling to identify reasons to believe the team is moving in the right direction.
Sacramento Kings fans recorded the lowest team confidence rating in the NBA at just 3.4 out of 10.
Confidence in the Kings’ head coach is also the lowest in the league at 4.1, while the team’s offseason received an average rating of only 4.4.
Just 7% of Sacramento fans expect at least 50 wins, and the same proportion believe the Kings will win the championship. Only 14% say they are more optimistic than they were a year ago.
The Memphis Grizzlies rank 3rd from bottom with a score of 33. None of the Memphis supporters surveyed predict 50 or more wins, while their average team-confidence rating is 5.9.
Completing the bottom 5 are the Charlotte Hornets (34) and Washington Wizards (35).
The bottom 10 fanbases in the NBA Hope Index are:
The NBA Hope Index captures where expectations stand before the season begins, from genuine championship belief to cautious hope for progress. Those expectations will soon be tested.
We surveyed 5,000 NBA fans across all 30 teams to measure optimism heading into the 2026-27 season.
Respondents answered questions covering their expected regular season record, predicted postseason finish, overall confidence in their team, faith in their head coach, satisfaction with the offseason, expectations for the season and whether they felt more or less optimistic than at the same point last year.
Responses were converted into numerical values between 0 and 100 and weighted according to their contribution to overall fan optimism:
Each team’s weighted average was then rescaled to produce an Optimism Index score between 0 and 100. The highest-scoring fanbase received 98, while the lowest received 2.
