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NFL Hope Index Reveals the Most Optimistic Fanbases Ahead of the 2026 Season

Every NFL fanbase enters a new season with hope. The only question is: how much?

Some are already planning a Super Bowl parade. Others believe a franchise quarterback, a strong offseason, or the momentum from last season has finally put them on the path to contention. And then there are the fans who have said, "This is our year," enough times to know better, but believe it anyway.

With training camp underway and September fast approaching, we wanted to find out which NFL fanbases are feeling the most optimistic heading into the 2026 season.

We surveyed 5,000 NFL fans across all 32 teams on everything from season expectations and projected wins to confidence in their quarterback, head coach and offseason moves. Their responses were combined into a weighted NFL Hope Index measuring each fanbase's optimism heading into 2026.

The results reveal a striking divide. The league's most optimistic fanbase scored 98 out of 100, while the least hopeful managed just 22, creating a 76-point gap in preseason belief.

Key Findings

Which NFL Fanbases Believe in Their Team the Most

NFL Hope Index 2026

At the top of the NFL Hope Index, confidence is in no short supply.

Kansas City Chiefs fans lead the rankings with a Hope Index score of 98, highlighting that years of sustained success have done nothing to lower expectations. Despite the pressure that comes with being perennial contenders, Chiefs supporters remain convinced another Lombardi Trophy is within reach.

Much of that confidence stems from complete faith in the foundation of the franchise. Patrick Mahomes received the highest quarterback confidence rating in the NFL (8.7/10), while Andy Reid earned the 2nd highest coach confidence score of 8.6/10, tied with Los Angeles Rams. Together, they continue to give Chiefs fans every reason to believe they have the league's strongest championship formula.

They're closely followed by the Los Angeles Rams (97) and reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks (97), two fanbases with every reason to expect another deep playoff run. The Rams are still only a few years removed from lifting the Lombardi Trophy, and nearly two-thirds of fans (65%) say they're more optimistic heading into the 2026 season than they were a year ago. Another 30% feel just as optimistic, while only 5% say they're less optimistic.

In Seattle, confidence remains just as strong after last season's Super Bowl win. Mike Macdonald received the highest head coach confidence rating in the NFL (8.7/10), compared to the league average of 6.9/10. Nearly half of Seahawks fans (46%) say they're even more optimistic than they were a year ago, while 51% say their optimism is unchanged and just 3% feel less optimistic, underlining the belief that the Seahawks can contend for another championship.

The Philadelphia Eagles (95) complete the top three, with confidence remaining high just two seasons after winning their own Super Bowl. Denver Broncos (94) take 4th place following a season that has clearly restored belief among their fanbase and Buffalo Bills completes the top 5 (92/100).

Completing the top 10 are the San Francisco 49ers (90), Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots (89), Chicago Bears (88), Baltimore Ravens (85) and Green Bay Packers (82).

What Drives NFL Hope?

The study suggests optimism isn't built on one factor alone. Championship success certainly helps, but confidence in a franchise quarterback, trust in the head coach and belief that the team is moving in the right direction all play a significant role.

Kansas City's league-leading score reflects exactly that combination. Chiefs fans recorded exceptionally high confidence across multiple categories, reinforcing the belief that the NFL's most successful franchise of recent years remains the team to beat.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks, Rams, Eagles and Bills all benefit from supporters who believe their current leadership gives them a genuine chance of another championship run.

The data suggests fans don't simply believe because of last season's record, they believe because they trust the people leading the franchise.

Hope Doesn't Always Follow the Standings

One of the biggest surprises from the NFL Hope Index is that optimism isn't simply a reflection of recent results.

The Chicago Bears rank 10th overall with a Hope Index score of 88, despite enduring several difficult seasons. Rather than dwelling on the past, Bears fans appear to be buying into the future, believing improvements at quarterback, across the roster and throughout the organisation will eventually translate into wins.

The New England Patriots (89) tell a similar story.

Although the franchise's dynasty feels increasingly distant, a return to Super Bowl contention has quickly restored confidence that the Patriots are once again heading in the right direction.

Some Fanbases Never Stop Believing

Hope isn't just about how fans feel before Week 1. It's also about how long that optimism survives once the season begins.

As part of the survey, fans were asked how they would react if their team opened the season 0-3. Some admitted an early losing streak would dramatically change expectations. Others remained remarkably resilient, believing there would still be plenty of time to turn the season around.

That resilience is another characteristic shared by many of the NFL's highest-ranked fanbases. The strongest supporters aren't just optimistic when everything is going well, they continue believing even when things aren’t going to plan.

The Bottom of the Rankings

At the other end of the table, some fanbases enter the season with far more questions than answers.

The New York Jets rank last with a Hope Index score of just 22, followed by the Cleveland Browns (25) and Tennessee Titans (30).

For these teams, lower optimism is driven by uncertainty around expectations, confidence in the team's direction, and belief that offseason improvements will translate into meaningful results.

The Jets' outlook is particularly bleak. More than four in five fans (82%) predict their team will win just four to six games this season. They also gave their quarterback the second-lowest confidence rating in the NFL (4.1/10), while confidence in head coach Aaron Glenn was the lowest in the league at just 4.9/10.

The Cleveland Browns, who rank second from bottom with a Hope Score of 25, also face a skeptical fanbase. Browns supporters gave their quarterback the lowest confidence rating in the NFL (3.7/10), while head coach Kevin Stefanski received the second-lowest coaching confidence score (5.0/10).

That uncertainty is reflected in expectations for the season. Nearly two-thirds of Browns fans (65%) predict their team will finish with just four to six wins, while 19% expect seven to nine wins and 15% believe they'll manage just three wins or fewer.

Just above them, the Las Vegas Raiders (46), Indianapolis Colts (45) and Miami Dolphins (45) also find themselves among the league's least optimistic fanbases, while the Arizona Cardinals (54) and New Orleans Saints (55) sit only slightly higher.

What Makes a Hopeful Fanbase?

Across all 32 teams, the survey found four common ingredients shared by the league's most optimistic supporters:

Now it's your turn.

Where do you rank in hope for this season?

The NFL Hope Index measures fan optimism across multiple categories, including:

Methodology

We surveyed 5,000 NFL fans across all 32 teams to measure preseason optimism heading into the 2026 season.

Respondents answered questions covering overall expectations, projected wins, playoff outlook, confidence in their quarterback, confidence in their head coach, satisfaction with offseason moves, optimism compared with last season and how they would react if their team started the year 0-3.

Responses were converted into numerical scores and weighted according to their contribution to overall fan optimism:

Category Weight
Overall optimism for the season 20%
Expected wins 15%
Expected playoff finish 15%
Confidence in quarterback 10%
Confidence in head coach 10%
Satisfaction with offseason 10%
More optimistic than last year 10%
Reaction to a 0-3 start 5%
Patience before questioning the head coach 5%

The weighted scores were combined to produce each team's overall NFL Hope Index from 0-100, with scores ranging from 22 to 98.

Fair Use

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